Local authorities need accurate information about the size, make-up and distribution of the population across the region, now and into the future, to inform planning for infrastructure and local services. This information can also be useful to inform future planning for community organisations and businesses.
An environmental scan is a snapshot of the current issues and opportunities facing the Tasman District. An Environmental Scan helps us consider the regional, national, and international context shaping the region and identify the long-term trends affecting the district. We develop an Environmental Scan during our Long-Term Plan process every three years.
Here are the environmental scans that we developed for past Long-Term Plans.
Tasman, like the rest of the country, is experiencing relatively high population growth.
As at 30 June 2022, Tasman District has an estimated population of 58,700 people.
Figure 1: Population in Tasman District as at 30 June, from 1996 - 2022.
Table 1: Tasman Population Estimates by Ward
Table 2: Proportion of Ward Population by age group in 2022
For more snapshots of Tasman’s population, go to the StatsNZ page on the Tasman Region: StatsNZ - Tasman Region
Table 3. Ethnic groups for people in Tasman Region, 2006-2018 Censuses
Take a look at the results of the 2018 New Zealand General Social Survey to see how we stack up against other regions in NZ in terms of self-assessed well-being. Social Well-being - StatsNZ
In 2021, median house prices in Tasman continue to increase. The median house price costs 13% more than last year, costing 9x the average Tasman wage.
Population projections and demographic trends are a key consideration in the Council’s forward planning. For the Long Term Plan 2021-2031, Council have engaged Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd to provide district and ward population and household projections for Tasman District and its five Wards.
Under the updated medium population scenario, Tasman’s population is projected to increase by 7,500 between 2018 and 2028, to reach 61,800. Across the 30 years from 2018 to 2048, Tasman’s population is projected to increase by 20,200 to reach 74,500.
Table 4. Projected numbers for Tasman District Wards
There are already more people aged 65 and older than children aged 0 to 14 years in Tasman. The proportion of Tasman’s population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase from 21% in 2018 to 34% by 2048. Figure 1 shows the expected growth in population by age group.
Figure 2. Historic and projected Tasman population by age group, 2008-2053
By 2038, the percentage of Tasman's population who identify as Māori is projected to reach 12%. Between 2013 and 2038, the number of Asian residents is projected to triple, from 2% to 6%, and the number of Pacific people is projected to double, from 1% to 2%.
For more information, read the Tasman District Population Projections 2018 – 2053 report. Note that the Council adopted a medium growth scenario. Tasman's Growth Model
GDP in Tasman District measured $2,425m in the year to March 2020, up 1.5% from a year earlier. New Zealand's GDP increased by 1.6% over the same period.
A total of 7,053 business units were recorded in Tasman District in 2020, down 0.2% from a year earlier. The number of business units in New Zealand increased by 1.6% over the same period. A decine in the growth of business units indicates more cautionary behaviour from entrepreneurs than last year.
Table 5. Top Five Broad Industries in Tasman District for contribution to GDP & Employment, 2019-2020
| Biggest Contributer to GDP |
Largest Contributer to Employment |
| Manufacturing | Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing |
| Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing | Manufacturing |
| Construction | Retail Trade |
| Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services | Construction |
| Retail Trade | Accommodation and Food Services |
For the latest information on our region, you can download reports from Business insights - NRDA
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