Every three years, the Council updates its Growth Model to predict future residential and business development across the Tasman District for the following 30 years. The Growth Model outputs inform the Long Term Plan and Tasman Resource Management Plan, to enable the Council to provide for growth with sufficient infrastructure and zoned land in the right location at the right time.
Population projections and demographic trends are key considerations in the Council’s forward planning. For Tasman's Long Term Plan 2024-2034, DOT Consulting has provided Tasman District Council and Nelson City Council with a set of population, household, and dwelling projections to 2058. The District will experience ongoing population growth over the next 30 years but the rate of growth will slow over time. Population ageing is driving changes in age structure.
Council is developing the Long Term Plan 2024-2034 based on these projections. Under the medium scenario, the overall population of Tasman is projected to increase by 7,000 residents between 2024 and 2034, to reach 67,500. The projections will also guide other Council planning for future residential and business development. The Council will also consider other factors, such as holiday house demand, visitor numbers, and major commercial developments, as we develop the Long Term Plan and review the Tasman Resource Management Plan.
DOT Report March 2023 Population Projections Nelson Tasman (pdf 7.7 MB)
The Growth Model was updated to inform Tasman's 10-Year Plan 2021-2031. This report was provided as supporting information for Tasman's 10-Year Plan. It outlines when and where Council expected new development, based on the Plan’s updated population growth scenario (using the 2019 population projections) and infrastructure programme.
The overall population of Tasman was expected to increase by 7,700 residents between 2021 and 2031, to reach 64,300 (assuming the medium scenario). Council planned for 4,300 new dwellings between 2021 and 2031 and a further 7,500 dwellings between 2031 and 2051. Council planned for 160 new business properties (retail, commercial or industrial) between 2021 and 2031, and a further 335 new properties between 2031 and 2051.
Tasman Growth Projections 2021 - 2051 (pdf 938 KB)
Community Reports provide an overview of the demographics, development options and the projects that Council included in Tasman's 10-Year Plan 2021-2031 for our communities.
These projects aimed to address anticipated growth, maintain and improve the services already provided and ensure that our public infrastructure is maintained and fit for purpose.
Population projections and demographic trends are a key consideration in the Council’s forward planning. For Tasman's 10-Year Plan 2021-2031, Council engaged Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd to provide district and ward population and household projections for Tasman District and its five Wards. In February 2020, Council approved the use of the medium scenario of these projections to guide the future demand for residential and business development for 2021-2051. The Council also considered other factors, such as holiday house demand, visitor numbers, and major commercial developments, in developing the Long Term Plan and reviewing the Tasman Resource Management Plan.
The Motueka, Moutere-Waimea and Richmond Wards were projected to experience the greatest growth in population. The Golden Bay Ward population was projected to peak in the 2030’s and then decline slightly, offsetting some of the growth in 2018-2028. The Lakes-Murchison Ward population was projected to plateau around 2038. These projections reflect each ward’s age structure and its migration trends (net gains/losses) for different age groups.
All age groups were projected to experience growth. However, the highest growth was in the 65+ age groups, whose proportion was projected to increase from 21% in 2018 to 34% in 2053.
Tasman District Population Projections 2018-2053.pdf (pdf 2 MB)
